诠释危机——当代货币危机理论的最新进展

20世纪90年代以来,国际经济领域爆发了一系列货币金融危机,学界对此进行了大量的研究.货币危机的第一代模型强调危机的根源在于政府政策的不一致;第二代模型则认为危机是"自促成"的,强调了投资者预期在危机中的作用;亚洲危机后的第三代模型将研究视角转向微观层面,形成了道德风险模型和金融恐慌模型.

The Evolvement and Development of the Currency Crisis Theory

The 1990s was punctuated by a series of financial and currency crises.Researchers have made a lot of studies about the reason:The first-generation models explain the relation between fiscal deficit and currency crisis;The second-generation models are often characterized by multiple equilibria occasioned by self-fulfilling expectations.As for the third-generation models,two main views were developed,namely"moral hazard-driven crisis theory"and"financial panic-driven crisis theory".