区域碳锁定的时空演变特征与影响机理

基于碳投入和碳产出视角，运用投入产出法、空间自相关法和通径分析模型，分别对中国各省份碳锁定状况的时空演变特征及其影响机理进行分析。研究结果显示:中国各省份碳锁定形势得到了显著改善，但省份之间发展很不平衡，东部地区低碳发展水平较高，中西部地区次之，但与东部地区仍存在较大的差距。各省份碳锁定状况具有显著的空间关联特征，空间发展格局由集中趋于分散，马太效应有所减弱。创新水平、产业结构、技术进步和能源效率的提升对碳解锁存在积极的推动作用，能源效率、技术进步和产业结构要素产生的直接碳锁定效应较大，而创新水平、技术进步和产业结构要素产生的间接碳解锁效应十分显著。

The Study of Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics and the Effect Mechanism of Regional Carbon Lock-in

This paper applied input-output method,spatial autocorrelation method and path analysis model to make a study of China''s provincial spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of carbon lock-in and its effect mechanism based on carbon inputs and carbon output perspectives. The results showed that each China''s province''s carbon lock-in situation had been significantly improved but unbalanced. The carbon lock-in situation in eastern areas is relatively high,central region is less high,and west regions is low,and the gap between the eastern region and the Midwest region has widened. The carbon lock-in situation has a significant spatial correlation characteristic. The spatial evolution pattern became more and more centralized from disperse and its Matthew effect has been weakened. The improvement of innovation,industrial structure,technological progress and energy efficiency has a positive role on promoting the carbon unlocking effect. Energy efficiency,technological progress and industrial structure generate a greater carbon unlocking effect directly. The innovation level,technological progress and industrial structure generate an obvious carbon unlocking effect indirectly.