中国煤炭产业产能过剩的影响因素

近年来，在经济增速减缓和能源低碳高效利用的双重约束下，煤炭市场需求下降，中国煤炭产业产能过剩问题日益突出。运用向量自回归模型选取固定资产投资、煤炭产业集中度、煤炭出口率、煤炭消费以及政策影响等指标，对中国煤炭产业产能过剩的影响因素进行定性和定量分析。研究认为，煤炭产能利用率和上述量化指标存在一种长期的均衡关系。进一步通过脉冲响应和方差分解分析上述指标对煤炭产能利用率的影响，认为必须改革政府的监管体制，严格控制煤炭行业准入机制，并通过加强煤炭企业的自主创新，完善产业发展的多元化道路。

Analysis of Influencing Factors in China's Coal Industrial Overcapacity

In recent years,China''s coal industrial overcapacity problems become increasingly prominent under the impact of the slowing down economy development and the effective low-carbon utilization of energy. Selecting fixed assets investment,the concentration of the coal industry,coal export rate,the consumption of coal and policy impact indicators,using vector auto-regression method to analyze the influencing factors of China''s coal industrial overcapacity. It concludes that the capacity utilization of coal has a long-term equilibrium relationship with the four quantified indicators. Then using the method of impulse response and variance decomposition quantify analysis the impact of these indicators to coal capacity utilization.The results show that:must reform the goverment regulatory system,strictly control the access mechanism of coal industry,and enhance the ability of innovation in coal enterprises to improve the diversification road of the coal industry.