出口退税政策效用的实验性评估——基于倍差法分析的再检验

选取2007年7月退税率调低政策事件作为实验环境，研究出口退税率调低对贸易商品的月度同比增长率的影响。结果表明:退税率调低对初级品类商品的贸易增长率有较大的负向效果，对资源类商品贸易增长率影响并不明显。稳健性检验显示出口退税率调整对贸易增长率影响具有一定的连续性和滞后性，对不同商品产生的作用有很大差异，经由调整窗宽、反事实检验和引入3次大规模政策调整扩展分析，印证了文中结论。政策制定者对贸易涉及产品的市场环境以及行业特点等因素有正确评估，选择恰当的退税率调整政策商品贸易组合，会有助于实现其目标。

Experimental Research on the Effect of Tax Rebate Policy-An Empirical Analysis based on Difference in Difference Method

This paper studies the effect of tax rebate policy to trade growth rate of monthly data,with selected tax rebate policy case data in July 2007 as experimental environment. We find that the effect of reduced tax rebate rate to primary products' trade growth rate is negative,the effect is not evident about resource products. The robust test shows that the effect of reduced tax rebate rate to trade growth rate is continuous and lagging,the effect is also different among products,through window width revision、counterfactual test and three great tax rebate policy adjustment analysis,the conclusions are still effective. This research suggests policy makers should assess the environment and industry characteristics of trade correctly,choose appropriate combination products of tax rebate policy involved,these practice is contributed to realize their targets.