| 流行病疫情预测评估模型探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 余心才,唐胜桥.流行病疫情预测评估模型探讨[J].榆林高等专科学校学报,2010,20(2):15-22. |
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| 作者姓名： | 余心才 唐胜桥 |
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| 作者单位： | 余心才(榆林学院,管理学院,陕西,榆林,719000);唐胜桥(武汉大学,经济与管理学院,湖北,武汉,430072) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于我国2003年新闻媒体公开发表的有关SARS确诊病例、疑似病例和死亡病例等的实际数据,建立有关流行病疫情严重程度、控制效果等方面的评估模型是本研究的目的。探讨了经典的流行病微分模型,建立了基于统计学的时序全局主成分分析模型。模型能比较好的与实际吻合,并能运用于与相类似于SARS的流行病的疫情预测评估。
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| 关 键 词： | SARS流行病学 时序分析 全局主成分分析 累积方差贡献率 |
On the Prediction Model of the Epidemic Diseases |
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| YU Xin-cai,TANG Sheng-Qiao.On the Prediction Model of the Epidemic Diseases[J].Journal of Yulin College,2010,20(2):15-22. |
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| Authors: | YU Xin-cai TANG Sheng-Qiao |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Management,Yulin University,Yulin 719000,Shaanxi;2.School of Economics ＆ Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the actual data related to diagnosing cases,suspected cases and deaths published by the media of China in 2003,this paper is to establish an evaluation model concerning the severity of epidemic diseases and the effect of controlling measures and so on.The paper discussed the classical differential coefficient model of epidemic diseases and built a timing global principal components analysis model based on statistics.The model coincided well in fact,and could be used to predicting and evaluating the epidemic situation of epidemic diseases like SARS. |
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| Keywords: | SARS epidemiology time analysis all-around PCA cumulative proportion in ANOVA |
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