高速公路施工进度风险评价

通过高速公路项目施工进度的风险识别,将主要影响因素分为硬、软指标并建立风险指标体系。采用模糊逻辑与概率分析相结合的方法对识别出来的风险进行计算和评价;运用主成分分析法将风险指标体系中的各数据进行自动赋权并降维,使概率分析与模糊逻辑法的评价简单易行;最后经过实际案例检验,证实该方法可行并具有现实意义。

The Application of CPA and Fuzzy Probability Analysis on Risk Evaluation of Highway Construction Schedule

Through the risk identification of highway project’s progress of construction,the authors divide the major factors into strong index and soft index,and then establish a risk index system.Using the fuzzy logic combined with probability analysis,the authors calculate and evaluate the identified risk.They make the evaluation on probability analysis and fuzzy logic method simple by using the principal component analysis,and automatically empowering and reducing dimensionality of the data for risk index system.Finally,it will confirm the feasibility of the method and practical significance through the test on actual cases.