有关股评价值的实证研究

以2000年股评家推荐的2052只股票作为样本,并根据推荐的持有策略将其分成短线和中线两组来分析股评的投资价值.研究结果对我国股评家属于信息驱动型提出了质疑,并指出,即使考虑交易费用,被推荐的短、中线个股(组合)仍然具有一定的投资价值.从长期来看,个股(组合)可以显著获得超常收益或赢利;与中线相比,短线个股(组合)的期望收益较高、风险较小.

An Empirical Study of Investment Value of Stock Analysis

The sample is made of 2052 stocks which are recommended by analysts in 2000 and sorted into short and middle term ones according to the holding period. With this sample, the investment value of stock analysis is discussed. The results deny the declaration that Chinese analysts are Information-Based, and point out that the recommended stocks can produce abnormal return even if trading fee is taken into account. In the long run, both singles and portfolios can significantly gain abnormal return. Compared with the middle-term, the short-term have higher expected return and lower risk.