新冠肺炎疫情与技术进步双重影响下的全球化趋势

新冠肺炎疫情影响全球物资、人员和资本流动,严重冲击当前的全球化进程。这一冲击的底层逻辑在于,人类社会运行以人员聚集状态下的生产为基本模式,形成的全球网络在疫情危机中易于遭受损失,并不安全。人类社会需要在更安全的状态下恢复全球化要素流动,并推动全球化继续发展。技术进步是应对这一需求的直接方式。其原因在于:技术进步使人类个体面对生物安全挑战时更加安全;技术进步使人类组织具备在隔离环境下维持运行的能力,提供对生物安全风险更强的监测和预测能力,提升供应链安全,并且技术进步理论上驱动组织形态发生部分变革,这都有助于人类组织更好应对生物安全风险。疫情和技术进步的双重影响促进全球化新趋势的产生。这种全球化新趋势包括更明显的地方化、区域化特点,以及中国在引领"再全球化"进程中作用的上升。新的全球化趋势将在地理空间层面和全球体系结构层面体现多中心化的特点。中国的比较优势有助于推动新的全球化趋势,实现更加均衡与安全的全球化。

Globalization under the Dual Impact of COVID-19 and Technological Progress

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on globalization by disrupting the global flow of goods, people and capital. The underlying cause of this impact is that the global networks that are formed under a mode of production that depends on congregating people are vulnerable to disruptions and unsafe. Since human society needs to restore the flow of the elements needed for globalization to develop in a more secure way, technological progress is a direct answer. Technological progress can keep people safe when facing biosecurity challenges. It enables institutions to better respond to biosecurity challenges by maintaining their ability to operate even when people are in quarantine, providing stronger monitoring and prediction capabilities for biosecurity risks, improving supply chain security, and promoting institutional adaptations.All these effects help human organizations reduce their vulnerability to biosecurity challenges. As a result of the dual impact of COVID-19 and technological progress, new developments in globalization have occurred including localization and regionalization, and the rising role of "re-globalization" led by China. The new globalization trends will be characterized by multi-centrism at the geospatial level and the global systemic level. China’s comparative advantages will help promote these trends toward a more balanced and secure globalization.