高空置率与高房价悖论在我国商品住宅市场的实证检验——基于全国省际及六大城市的面板数据

本文利用2003-2010年全国省际及六大城市的面板数据,实证检验了我国商品住宅市场是否存在高房价和高空置率并存的"双高悖论"。结果表明,我国商品住宅市场总体而言不存在此悖论,大多数省份和大城市的空置率和房价呈负相关关系,空置率变化率是实际房价变化率的格兰杰因,空置率上涨1%,实际房价下降0.5%。基于自然空置率测算结果,本文提出我国空置率的合理范围为5%-20%。

An Empirical Test of the Paradox of High Vacancy Rate and High Housing Prices Based on a Panel Data from China's Residential Real Estate Market

This paper uses a panel data from China＇s residential real estate market from 2003 to 2010 to empirically test whether the so-called paradox of high vacancy rate coexists with high housing price in China. Results show that China＇s residential real estate market in general does not support the existence for this paradox. In most provinces and major cities, vacancy rate change is negatively correlated with housing price change and the former Granger causes the latter. If vacant rate rises by 1% percent, real house price fails by 0.5%. Based on natural vacancy rate estimation, this paper also proposes an acceptable vacancy rate should be between 5% and 20% in China.