| Institution: | 1. Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
*Address correspondence to Margaret Donald, Queensland University of Technology, George St., Brisbane QLD 4000, Australia;2. tel: 617 3138 1292;3. fax: 617 3138 2310;4. Margaret.Donald@student.qut.edu.au;5. University of Western Australia, Crawley, Australia.;6. Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia. |
| Abstract: | Estimating potential health risks associated with recycled (reused) water is highly complex given the multiple factors affecting water quality. We take a conceptual model, which represents the factors and pathways by which recycled water may pose a risk of contracting gastroenteritis, convert the conceptual model to a Bayesian net, and quantify the model using one expert's opinion. This allows us to make various predictions as to the risks posed under various scenarios. Bayesian nets provide an additional way of modeling the determinants of recycled water quality and elucidating their relative influence on a given disease outcome. The important contribution to Bayesian net methodology is that all model predictions, whether risk or relative risk estimates, are expressed as credible intervals. |
