非线性分析下西部-江苏能源联动决策支持系统的研究--能源消费与生产混沌动力学模型的建立

根据能源系统中能源经济增长将随着对能源依赖的逐渐饱和而下降这一合理假设,给出能源系统消费的Logistic模型.利用该模型对我国2010年、2030年能源消费量的预测结果分别为22.15亿吨标准煤及32.88亿吨标准煤;江苏省能源消费总量亦呈上升趋势,从1996年到2010年增加61%,明显高出全国平均增加水平33%.同时本文利用哈维尔摩经济增长模型,引入能源生产的哈维尔摩模型,该模型适用于能源生产预测系统.利用该模型对我国2010年和2030年能源生产量的预测结果分别为17.66亿吨标准煤及31.83亿吨标准煤.从预测结果看,本文的能源消费、生产预测模型明显优于其他预测模型.

Coordinated Energy Decision-making System under Nonlinear Analysis in Western Jiangsu Areas

With the likelihood of the steady economic growth of energy decreasing when it reaches the saturated growth level of dependency on energy, it is fitting to adopt the logistic model with which consumption of energy system may be analyzed. This paper uses the model together with coordinated energy decision making system to project the consumption of energy in China as well as in Western Jiangsu areas. The projection results of the consumption of energy in the year of 2010 and 2030 are as follows: in China, 2,215 and 3,288 million tons of standard coal respectively. The consumption of energy in Jiangsu province is projected to be on the increase by 61% in the year from 1996 to 2010. It represents higher than the average level of the whole country by 33%. In addition, this paper adopts Haavelmo economic model with slight modification and creates Haavelmo model for projecting production of energy. The projection results of the production of energy in the year of 2010 and 2030 are as follows: 1,766 and 3,183 million tons of standard coal respectively in China. It proves that the models are quite effective in projecting consumption and production of energy system.