中国出生性别比升高的孩次性别递进过程分析

应用孩次性别递进分析方法,使用1990年和2000年全国人口普查原始抽样数据和2005年1%人口抽样调查原始抽样数据,对我国出生性别比变化情况进行分析,并就1990年以来出生性别比升高的内在机制进行深入探讨。研究发现,从20世纪80年代初开始已经显示了生育性别干预的特征,2000年以来纯女户生育性别比升高到190以上,纯男户生育性别比下降到90以下。2005年纯女户的偏男倾向依然非常明显,生育第一孩的性别比也表现出明显的人为干预现象。正是由于对生育第一孩的性别比的直接干预,才促使了出生性别比持续升高和高孩次生育性别比及高孩次生育率的下降。

Research on Parity and Its Sex Progression of Chinese Women

With the sex and parity progression method,this paper used the census raw sampling data of 1990 and 2000 of China to analyze the situation of sex ratio at birth of China,and explored the inside mechanism of the rise of sex ratio at birth since 1990.The character of human intervening on sex at birth has appeared since the 1980s,and sex ratio at birth of the only-girl household has increased to 190 above in 2000 and that of the only-boy household has decreased to 90 below.In 2005,the boy preference of the only-girl household still remained evident,and sex ratio at first birth was intervened evidently.Because of the human intervening on sex ratio at first birth,sex ratio at birth rose continuously and sex ratio at birth and fertility rate of the high parity dropped.