技术创新速度对新技术购买行为的影响———两代未来创新的情况

通过引入第二代未来创新更好地实现了将技术创新的购买看作一系列实物期权的思想.讨论了实物期权价值以及触发现有创新购买、跨越或升级到未来创新的状态临界值的求解方法,在假定现有创新和第一代未来创新均出现情况下给出了购买时机的概率模型. 数字释例表明,虽然技术创新速度对购买行为的影响在仅有一代未来创新情况下呈现明显的非单调特征,但对第二代未来创新的预期将显著削弱甚至消除创新速度影响中的非单调特征,从而为直观分析特别是实证结果提供了更好的理论支持

Impact of speed of innovation arrival on innovation adoption timing : Case oftwo generations of future innovations

This paper realizes the concept of treating the adoption of technology innovations as a sequence of real op2tions more completely by introducing the second generation of future innovations. The solutions to the values of thereal options and the triggers to adopt the current innovation , to leapfrog or upgrade to the future innovation are dis2cussed in detail . By assuming the first as well as the current innovation emerges over the sales recording period , therelevant probability model regarding adoption timing is given analytically. Our numerical illustrations show that whilethere is a significant turning point in the impact of the speed of technology progress when only one generation of fu2ture innovation is expected and it emerges over the recording period , the impact becomes much less non-monotonicor even monotonic when a further generation of improvements is expected. This confirms the intuitive and our previ2ous empirical results.