高铁时代广深双城及其与腹地城市联动关系识别的证据

得益于两个大局战略推进,地处东部沿海开放前沿地带的广州、深圳双城获得了先发之机.历时30余年,广深两大中心城市地位已经确立,并且在发展中不断得以巩固.不同的是,广州地位之确立是历史的再现,深圳市则是改革与开放政策催生的新兴城市.通过借鉴经典引力模型,结合广深城市体系发展实践,确立珠三角地区的中心城市,甄别联动关系.测算结果发现,虽采取不同算法,城市关系及位序法则却保持着一致性.给定中心城市,也就能够识别腹地城市数和区域范围.实证检验发现:高铁确实产生了珠三角城市间的联动效应,并使广深的辐射能力正在逐步增强,而且强化了普通铁路和高速公路所能够产生的增长驱动力.换言之,广深双城对腹地城市的辐射效应要远大于虹吸效应,整体联动和抱团发展的局面已经打开.当使用铁路列车班次并赋予权重计算的城市联系指数进行再检验,该实证结果仍然稳健.政策含义:充分发挥快速铁路的联动能力,划定中心城市辐射范围,在集聚中走向平衡,重新理清政府和市场的作用与反作用关系.

The evidence of Guangzhou-Shenzhen twin cities and hinterland cities' interactive relationship recognition in the high-speed rail era

Benefiting from the "two overall strategies" promotion, Guangzhou and Shenzhen which are located at eastern coastal areas of the open frontier have preferential development opportunities.In the past 30 years, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have established their status of center cities.Such status is shored up by their development.What is different is that the establishment of Guangzhou''s status is a reoccurrence of history, rather Shenzhen is a newborn city which was based on the reform and opening policy.Through using classical gravity model, combining with Guangzhou-Shenzhen''s city system development practice, establishing the center of the city in the Pearl River delta, identifying interactive relationship, measurement results show that algorithm and sequence rule has maintained consistency although using different calculation methods.Given the central city, hinterland cities'' number and area are able to be identified.Empirical research found that:High-speed rail, do make the connected effect of the Pearl River delta cities, and the radiation effect of Guangzhou and Shenzhen are gradually strengthen, and to strengthen the ordinary railway and highway''s growth driving force.In other words, Guangzhou and Shenzhen''s radiation effect on the hinterland cities is greater than the siphon effect, the situation of whole linkage and clannishness development was already open.The results are still robust when using railway trains and giving weight calculation of city link index to test again.Policy implications include:Give full play to the linkage ability of rapid railway and central cities'' designated radiation scope, to balance in the cluster, to regroup the relationship between government and market''s action and reaction.