Electoral Competition and Changes in the Party Balance in the U.S. Congress, 1789–1977

The Republicans have controlled Congress for only 4 years out of the last 45. This article considers how a majority party in a democratic country can maintain its control over a long period against the best efforts of the minority party. It is argued that if citizens chiefly evaluate the past performance of the incumbents when deciding how to vote, the majority party is likely to maintain itself in power indefinitely, while such an outcome is unlikely if citizens compared parties. Dynamic statistical models of changes in the party balance are estimated; the findings indicate that the minority party has usually had little chance of gaining majority status, no matter how long it tried. The results are consistent with the notion that citizens evaluate performance, not platforms. Implications for interpreting electoral competition are considered.