我国资本流出的效应分析

由于预期人民币步入升值轨道,短期资本大量流入,资本项目顺差推动我国储备资产激增。货币政策进退维谷:降低利率虽能缓解人民币升值的压力,却有诱发通胀之虑。显然,增加国际收支借方项目降低储备才是权宜之计。因此,允许合规资本自由流出,是目前我国外汇管理的必然选择。全面评估资本流出可能产生的货币供给、价格及国际收支效应,是有效管理资本流动的必然要求。

Effect Analysis of Capital Flight Out of China

It was predicted that RMB would step into up-valuation,so short-term capital flushed into China,which made our deposit capital increase radically with favorable balance in capital and brought our currency policy into dilemma.Decreasing the interest rate can relieve the pressure of up-valuation but may induce deflation,so it is a better policy to let legal capital fly out freely to decrease the deposit amount in foreign currency control.Giving a whole evaluation of the influence of capital flight-out on currency supply,price and international revenue and expenditure is the necessary requirement of effective capital management.