产业结构升级、对外开放是否减弱了经济波动及其负面效应？

以我国改革开放以来的地区面板数据,研究产业结构升级和对外开放对我国经济波动和经济增长的影响,同时检验产业结构、对外开放度是否影响经济波动和经济增长的关系.实证研究发现,我国产业结构升级在减弱经济波动的同时促进了经济长期增长,而对外开放度的提高增加了经济波动,对经济增长表现为1996年以前影响不显著,1996年后有正效应.进一步,改革开放以来我国经济波动对经济增长存在负向影响,但1996年之前和1996年之后影响不同,分别是正影响和负影响,此外产业结构升级和对外开放度的提高有助于减弱经济波动对经济增长的负面影响,并且当产业结构升级和对外开放度超过一定临界值后,这一影响转而为正.据此根据研究结论提出了相关的政策建议.

The Positive and Negative Effects on Economic Fluctuation due to the Upgrading of Industrial Structure and the Opening to the Outside World

Based on the 1978--2012 regional panel data in China, the paper evaluates the effect of the upgrading of industrial structure and the opening to the outside world on the economic fluctuation and growth, and then explores how the upgrading and the opening affect the relevance of economic fluctuation and growth. The result shows that the upgrading of China＇s industrial structure weakens the economic fluctuation but improves a long-run economic growth simultaneously. Though the higher the opening degree, the bigger the economic fluctuation, there was little significant effect of the opening on the economic growth before 1996 but a positive effect after that year. Besides it is noticed that the economic fluctuation have affected negatively on the economic growth since 1978. However the effect varies before and after 1996, which is significantly nonlinear and transfers from negative to positive especially when the level of industrial structure upgrading and the degree of opening to the outside world exceeds the threshold value. Finally, the paper comes to the conclusion to provide some suggestions and reference.