Knox meets Cox: Adapting epidemiological space-time statistics to demographic studies |
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Authors: | Carl P Schmertmann Renato M Assunção Joseph E Potter |
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Institution: | Center for Demography and Population Health, Florida State University, USA. schmertmann@fsu.edu |
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Abstract: | Many important questions and theories in demography focus on changes over time, and on how those changes differ over geographic
and social space. Space-time analysis has always been important in studying fertility transitions, for example. However, demographers
have seldom used formal statistical methods to describe and analyze time series of maps. One formal method, used widely in
epidemiology, criminology, and public health, is Knox’s space-time interaction test. In this article, we discuss the potential
of the Knox test in demographic research and note some possible pitfalls. We demonstrate how to use familiar proportional
hazards models to adapt the Knox test for demographic applications. These adaptations allow for nonrepeatable events and for
the incorporation of structural variables that change in space and time. We apply the modified test to data on the onset of
fertility decline in Brazil over 1960–2000 and show how the modified method can produce maps indicating where and when diffusion
effects seem strongest, net of covariate effects. |
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