中国转轨时期经济增长周期的基本特征及其解释模型

本文利用现代经济计量方法实证检验了中国改革开放以来ＧＤＰ、投资和消费等主要总量指标增长趋势的性质 ,根据检验结果 ,对这些总量指标进行了适当的趋势分离。在此基础上 ,着重考查和分析了转型时期经济增长周期波动的基本特征 ,初步确定我国经济增长已出现平均长度为９年左右的朱格拉型中周期波动。针对这一典型事实 ,本文进一步借鉴动态非均衡经济学的有关理论 ,通过建立固定资产投资周期模型 ,尝试解释了经济周期的主要形成机制。一、引言纵观近两个世纪的世界经济发展史 ,各国经济增长过程中普遍存在着扩张与收缩的循环交替所形成的周…

The Basic Feature and its Pattern as an Explanation of the Economic Growth Cycle in China in Transition

In this article I will, with the help of modern econometric techniques and case studies, examine the nature of growth trend demonstrated since China adopted the policy of reform and opening to the outside world, of the principal aggregate indicators of GDP, investment and consumption, and on this basis, draw a proper distinction between trends of those aggregate indicators. And on this ground this paper will chiefly inquire into and analyze the basic characteristics of the cyclic fluctuation of economic growth in China's economic transition, fixing in rough the average length of China's economic growth as something like 9 years in terms of Clement Juglar's cyclic fluctuation theory. Considering this typical fact and using for reference the related theory of dynamic non-equilibrium economics, in this article I will try, by the construction of the pattern of investment cycle of fixed assets, to explain the main mechanisms form this economic cycle.