| 考虑石油替代品和关税配额政策的石油储备模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周德群,孙立成,万红. 考虑石油替代品和关税配额政策的石油储备模型研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2010, 18(1): 149-155 |
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| 作者姓名： | 周德群 孙立成 万红 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院, 江苏 南京 210016;2. 南京航空航天大学能源软科学研究所, 江苏 南京 210016 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重大项目(08&;ZD046);国家自然科学基金资助项目(70873058);江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目(CX08B_041R) |
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| 摘 要： | 石油储备在国民经济的发展和国家经济安全中起着极为重要的作用,文章构建了具有石油替代品和关税配额政策影响的石油储备模型,分析了石油替代品和关税配额政策对石油储备规模、补仓速率和释放速率等一些储备策略的影响机理,并设置了三种不同的情景对模型进行了数值分析。结果表明:石油替代能力的减小将会导致国家最优石油储备规模的增大和石油释放速率的减小;石油进口配额的减小将会引起国家最优石油储备规模的增大、石油补仓速率的急剧减小和石油释放速率的小幅下降。
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| 关 键 词： | 石油替代品 关税配额政策 石油储备规模 石油补仓速率 石油释放速率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-01-21 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009-12-30 |
Study on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Model with the Factor of Petroleum Substitution and Tariff Quota Policy |
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| ZHOU De-qun,SUN Li-cheng,WAN Hong. Study on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Model with the Factor of Petroleum Substitution and Tariff Quota Policy[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2010, 18(1): 149-155 |
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| Authors: | ZHOU De-qun SUN Li-cheng WAN Hong |
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| Affiliation: | 1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing 210016, China;2. Institute of Soft Energy Science, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China |
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| Abstract: | Petroleum reserve plays an extremely important role in the national economy development and national economic security.This paper has constructed the petroleum reserve model with the impact of petroleum substitution and tariff quota policy,analyzed the impact of the two factors on the optimal strategy,and set up three different scenarios to analyze the the validity of the model.The results show that,the decreased size of the petroleum substitution will result in the increased capacity of the optimal country oil and the reduction of the relating rate of petroleum reserves;and the reduced petroleum imported quotas will cause the country to enlarge the optimal size of the petroleum reserves,the rapid decrease of the rate of the petroleum covering and oil release rate declined slightly. |
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| Keywords: | petroleum substitution tariff quota policy size of petroleum reserves rate of petroleum covring rate of petroleum releasing |
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