大型工程项目融资风险动态分担

目前大型工程项目融资风险分担不尽合理，针对这一问题，立足参与方个体，构建了大型工程项目融资风险分担体系，重点考虑融资风险分担的“动态性”和“准确性”两个方面。一是以合同为纽带把融资过程划分为缔约和履约两个阶段，并在此基础上采用德尔菲法构建了缔约阶段和履约阶段各自的融资风险种类；二是通过灰色关联度和双基准法相结合构建融资风险初次分担方法，以获得单方承担的融资风险和需要共担的融资风险；三是基于Shapley值法构建模型，确定共担方之间的承担比例。以青岛胶州湾海底隧道为例进行的实证研究表明，该融资风险分担体系是科学合理的。

The Financing Risk Dynamic Allocation of Large-scale Construction Project

Currently,the financing risk allocation of large-scale construction projects is not very reasonable. In order to address the problem,the paper builds a financing risk allocation system for large-scale construction projects based on the individual participant perspective. The system emphatically considers two aspects-the Dynamics and Accuracy-in financing risk allocation. Firstly,regarding the contract as the link,financing process is divided into two phases-contracting and compliant. Then,financing risks of each phase are found by Delphi method. Following,the method of the first financing risk allocation is established through a combination of the gray correlation degree and double benchmark method,so as to obtain the single-party-bearing financing risks and the sharing risks. Finally,the financing risk sharing ratio among the participants is determined by constructing a model based on Shapley value. Taking the Qingdao Jiao-Zhou Bay tunnel as an example,the empirical research shows that the financing risk sharing system is scientific and reasonable.