泰国民主政治的发展道路及其成因

自1932年至今,泰国的民主政治发展经历了五次大的机遇,也遭受了一系列军事政变的挫折;致使泰国的政治发展既没有像新加坡和马来西亚那样建立起稳固的威权体制,也没有像菲律宾和印尼那样在民主化之后建立起稳定的民主政体,而是在动荡和军事政变中像钟摆一样在军事威权、半民主和民主政体之间来回摇摆。造成这种独特的民主政治发展道路的原因主要在于泰国的政治发展形成了对军事政变的路径依赖、没有构建起现代的官僚体系、统治精英之间相互分裂与斗争、民主的支持力量软弱而不稳定。泰国在可以预见的未来将无法摆脱目前的民主政治发展道路;要建立稳固的民主政治,泰国必须培养强大的民主文化。

The Development Path of Democratic Politic in Thailand and the Causes for Such Path

Democratic politics in Thailand has encountered five dcvelopmcnt opportunities,but it has also suffered from many coups.Thailand has neither constructed stable authoritarian system as is the case in Singaporc or Malaysia nor built consolidated democratic system as in the Philippines or Indonesia.Its political system swayed between authoritarianism and democracy just like a pendulum.The causes of this particular way of political develop- ment are the dependence on military coup,failure in the construction of a modern bureaucratic system,the split and in-fighting among the elites and weak democratic supporting force.In the near future,Thailand will not be able to rid itself of this political development path.