分城乡人口预测中乡-城人口转移技术处理及人口转移预测

针对多区域人口发展方程进行人口预测的乡-城转移人口模式和转移率的处理问题,提出了一个总和乡-城人口转移率的概念与方法,并利用该人口预测方法对我国乡-城转移人口的规模和结构进行预测分析.模拟结果显示,随着人口城镇化水平的提高,2000-2020年内每年的乡-城转移人口为1500万左右,其中将有70%-80%为15-64岁劳动年龄人口,为城镇的发展提供丰富的劳动力资源,同时加剧了农村的人口老龄化.

The deal of rural-urban migration in the multi-regional population project model and its projection in China

In view of uses the multi-regional population project model to carry on in the population forecast the rural-urban population transition pattern,the shift rate processing question,this paper proposed a processing method in witch we induce total rural-urban shift rate,and using this population forecast the method gives the preliminary forecast analysis to our country population rural-urban shift scale and the structure.May know through the population development simulation run,along with the population urbanization development,our country will shift annually about 15 million persons from rural population to the cities within future 20 years.Moreover 70-80%of the rural-urban shift population is 15-64 year old of rural labor force,this will provide the rich labor force resources for the cities development.Certainly,this can intensify population aged in the countryside.