博弈论视角下居住证制度的历史演变和发展趋势分析

居住证，从表象来看是中国管理流动人口的一种主要方式，从本质来看凸显出中国长期存在的城乡二元体制的结构性问题。居住证与暂住证制度、收容遣返制度等制度存在密切的关联性。从博弈论的视角透视居住证制度背后所隐藏的利益博弈关系，并通过这些利益博弈关系的分析，结合其他学者研究的成果，对居住证制度的发展前景进行预测。虽然居住证制度在一定时期成为中国流动人口管理的主要制度，但是其随着户籍制度的改革和城乡一体化的发展必将消亡。

Analysis on the Evolution and Development Trend of the Residence Permits System from Perspective of Gaming Theory

Residence permits system is a main way of China＇s management of the mobile population, high- lights China＇s structural problems of long-standing urban and rural dual system in nature. There is a close corre- lation among residence permits system, temporary residential permit system, and taking-in and repatriation sys- tem. From the perspective of gaming theory, the paper finds out relations of gaming of interests hidden behind the residence permit system, predicts the prospect of the development of the residence permit system based on analysis of relations of gaming of interests and other scholars＇ research results. With the reform of the household registration system and the development of urban and rural integration, the residence permit system will disap- pear although the residence permit system becomes China＇s major management system of mobile population in a certain period.