利率与通货膨胀率关系的实证分析

一般认为，利率与通货膨胀率之间存在负相关关系，然而现实当中加息之后通常都会使通货膨胀加剧。运用黑箱分析方法可以得到宏观的“费雪效应”关系式，即名义利率与通胀率之间存在明确的正相关关系。这一关系式可以得到历史事实的验证。因此，传统货币政策的调控思路有必要与时俱进地拓展。

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Interest Rate and Inflation Rate

It is generally believed that interest rate and inflation rate are negatively related.However,higher interest rate policies are often followed by higher inflation in practice.With the black-box method,a "Fisher effect" formula can be derived.This formula shows that the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate are positively associated at the macro-level.It can be proven by historical facts.Therefore,the traditional understanding on adjusting the monetary policy should be corrected as time goes on.