| Abstract: | The author attempts to quantitatively investigate and explain possible relationships between patterns of political violence and refugee formations, identifying political violence variables which contribute most to refugee movements in the Horn of Africa. Particular attention is given to the extent to which refugee movements were influenced by domestic and international political violence patterns; which of the violence variables was more important in explaining refugee movements; and whether there were common patterns in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan with respect to refugee movements. Findings from the analysis of political violence variables indicate that the intervention of extra-regional powers in domestic or inter-state conflicts had a significant effect in generating refugees. The involvement of external forces either increased the actual level and intensity of violence or created a perception of uncontrolled turmoil and further bloodshed in the future. In both situations, large numbers of refugees sought shelter across international boundaries. |
