| 我国鸭苗价格波动的周期性研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 闫建伟,陈娟.我国鸭苗价格波动的周期性研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014,33(2):40-45. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 闫建伟 陈娟 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 华中农业大学 经济管理学院，湖北 武汉 430070;华中农业大学 经济管理学院，湖北 武汉 430070 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家现代农业产业技术体系专项经费资助项目“水禽产业技术体系研究”(CARS-43-10B)。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 在分析影响我国鸭苗价格周期性波动原因的基础上,利用X12季节调整法与H-P滤波模型法对我国鸭苗价格周期波动进行研究。结果表明:鸭苗价格波动具有周期性,周期平均长度为33个月,每个周期具有非对称性,每一周期的持续上涨时间低于持续下降时间。提出建立鸭苗生产的资格准入制度和标准许可证制度、合理控制鸭苗供给规模、保持国际和国内肉鸭市场信息畅通和加强肉鸭的疫病防治工作等相关的建议。
|
| 关 键 词： | 鸭苗价格 H-P滤波模型 X季节调整法 周期性 产业链 |
Researchon Periodicity of Price Fluctuation of Chinese Duckling |
| |
| YAN Jian-wei,CHEN Juan.Researchon Periodicity of Price Fluctuation of Chinese Duckling[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2014,33(2):40-45. |
| |
| Authors: | YAN Jian-wei CHEN Juan |
| |
| Institution: | (College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan , Hubei , 430070) |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on reasons influencing the price fluctuation of China＇s ducklings,this paper studies the price volatility by using X12 seasonally adjustment and Hodrick Prescott filter model. The result shows that ：duckling price fluctuation is cyclical, the average cycle length is 33 months. Each cycle is a non-symmetrical. The continuing rising time in each cycle is less than the falling time. Therefore, this pa- per proposes some suggestions：establishing perfect qualification system and standards permit system of duckling production; reasonably controlling ducklings supply scale; maintaining fluency of internation- al and domestic duck market information and strengthening the prevention and control on epidemic dis- ease and so on. |
| |
| Keywords: | duckling H-P Filter Model X12 seasonally adjustment periodicity industrial chain |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《华中农业大学学报(社会科学版)》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《华中农业大学学报(社会科学版)》下载免费的PDF全文 |
