| 基于Gray—Markov模型的城乡建设用地规模预测——以张掖市为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 邴广路,石培基.基于Gray—Markov模型的城乡建设用地规模预测——以张掖市为例[J].统计与信息论坛,2010,25(2):73-77. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邴广路 石培基 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北师范大学,地理与环境科学学院,甘肃,兰州,730070 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重点项目，西北师范大学三期知识与科技创新工程项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 科学合理的用地需求预测方法是土地利用总体规划能否制定科学合理目标的关键。选取在形态上呈相对聚集、面状分布的城乡建设用地为预测对象，将Gray—Markov模型引入到城乡建设用地规模预测中来，并以甘肃省张掖市为例进行了实证研究。结果表明：与其他预测模型对比，Gray—Markov模型模拟和预测精度更高，能够为土地利用总体规划提供可靠保证。
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| 关 键 词： | 城乡建设用地 规模预测 灰色模型 Gray—Markov模型 张掖市 |
Scale Prediction of Urban Construction Land Based on Gray-Markov Model:Zhangye City's Case |
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| BING Guang-lu,SHI Pei-ji.Scale Prediction of Urban Construction Land Based on Gray-Markov Model:Zhangye City's Case[J].Statistics & Information Tribune,2010,25(2):73-77. |
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| Authors: | BING Guang-lu SHI Pei-ji |
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| Institution: | BING Guang-lu,SHI Pei-ji(School of Geography , Environment Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China) |
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| Abstract: | Scientific and reasonable scale prediction methods of land use are the keys of general land use planning implementation.This paper chooses urban construction land,in the form of relative aggregation area,as a prediction target.It introduces the Gray-Markov Chain Model to the prediction and it also takes an empirical research in Zhangye city in Gansu province.The results show that the Gray-Markov Chain Model has a higher prediction accuracy compared with other models and also is a reliable guarantee for the ... |
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| Keywords: | urban construction land scale prediction Gray model Gray-Markov Chain Model Zhangye city |
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