中国碳锁定的行业差异分解与解锁路径分析

采用脱钩理论、投入产出法分析中国碳排放的锁定状态及各产业部门碳锁定的演变特征.研究发现:2002—2012年,中国碳排放锁定状态主要集中在相对解锁和增长锁定这两种状态,并未出现绝对锁定或绝对解锁的状态;综合碳锁定系数有了较大幅度的下降,碳锁定形势在整体上得到了显著的改善,部门内碳锁定系数和部门间碳锁定系数都出现较大的下降幅度;依据产业部门的碳排放特征可将其分为高排放高锁定、高排放低锁定、低排放高锁定、低排放低锁定四种行业类型.摆脱碳锁定,实现碳解锁,应推进产业的转型与升级,加强重点行业的减排工作;加强低碳技术研发,提高能源利用效率;大力推广低碳消费,树立科学的低碳消费观念.

Analysis on the Path of Decomposition and Release of Carbon Lock Industry in China

With the help of decoupling theory and input-output analysis,this paper aims to reveal China 's carbon emissions locking condition and the evolution characteristics of carbon lock in industrial sec-tors.The result shows that from 2002 to 2014,China's carbon emission lock status mainly are in the relative unlock and growth lock state and did not show absolutely locked or absolutely unlocked state. Carbon locked situation has been significantly improved,and a certain degree of carbon unlocking has been achieved from the whole,intra-department and inter-department level.According to the carbon emission characteristics of the industry sector,four types can be classified:high emission high lock industry,high emission low lock industry,low emission high lock industry,and low emission low lock industry.To get rid of carbon lock and achieve carbon unlock,we should advance the transforma-tion and upgrading of industry,strengthen the key industries of emission reduction work;improve the low carbon technology research and improve energy efficiency;promote low-carbon consumption and establish a scientific concept of low carbon consumption.