世界人口负增长的趋势展望与影响应对

根据人口转变理论,后人口转变时期的人口负增长是超低生育率作用下人口再生产的特殊类型,是在无迁移人口条件下死亡人口超过出生人口,人口总量和增速、年龄结构和分布结构等快速变迁的现象。华盛顿大学2020年人口预测数据首次勾勒出21世纪世界人口负增长的基本趋势,对比联合国2019年人口预测数据,发现世界人口负增长在21世纪开启的作用机制在于低生育率水平预期。进一步展望世界人口负增长趋势,不难发现人口年龄结构加速老化、区域和国别人口发展不均衡、人口与经济发展关系差异化等特征与人口负增长伴随;通过减少劳动力资源、挤压技术进步空间、增加社会保障压力等方式与人口老龄化相伴生,在后人口转变阶段与低生育率陷阱相叠加,以及通过总体和个体视角与资源、环境相互作用。在适应人口发展规律的基础上,亟待从缓解老龄社会问题、分类实施家庭计划政策、推动可持续发展等视角积极应对人口负增长影响。

Prospects and Countermeasures of the Global Negative Population Growth

According to the demographic transition theory,negative population growth in post-demographic transition period is a special population reproduction pattern under the effect of ultra-low fertility.It refers to the phenomenon of rapid change that the number of deaths exceeds the number of births without migration,and the total population and growth rate,age structure and distribution structure.The forecast data in 2020 of the University of Washington outlines the basic trend of the global negative population growth in this century for the first time.Compared these data with the UN forecast in 2019,this paper finds that the mechanism of the global negative population growth in this century lies in the expectation about low fertility rate.Looking forward to the trend of negative population growth in the world,it is found that the accelerated aging of population age structure,the imbalance of regional and national population development,and the differentiated relationship between population and economic development are accompanied by negative population growth.Negative population growth is accompanied with the population aging by reducing labor resources,squeezing the space for technological progress,and increasing social security pressure.Negative population growth is also associated with the risk of low fertility traps in the post-demographic transition stage,interacted with resources and environment through the overall and individual perspectives.It is urgent to relieve the aging society problems,implement different family planning policies and promote sustainable development actively on the basis of adapting to the law of negative population growth.