Updating Parameters of the Chicken Processing Line Model |
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Authors: | Dorota Kurowicka Maarten Nauta Katarzyna Jozwiak Roger Cooke |
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Affiliation: | 1. Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.;2. Technical University of Denmark.;3. Resources for the Future. |
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Abstract: | A mathematical model of chicken processing that quantitatively describes the transmission of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from slaughter to chicken meat product has been developed in Nauta et al. (2005). This model was quantified with expert judgment. Recent availability of data allows updating parameters of the model to better describe processes observed in slaughterhouses. We propose Bayesian updating as a suitable technique to update expert judgment with microbiological data. Berrang and Dickens's data are used to demonstrate performance of this method in updating parameters of the chicken processing line model. |
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Keywords: | Bayesian updating Campylobacter chicken processing expert judgment probabilistic inversion |
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