Matrix Theory Formalism for Event Tree Analysis: Application to Nuclear-Risk Analysis

It is pointed out that the familiar analytical device of "event tree", widely used in risk analysis, can be viewed as a transition matrix expressing the likelihood of going from "entry states" to "exit states". This point of view is shown to have numerous interesting conceptual and computational features which promise to make it a very useful addition to the arsenal of tools for risk analysis. The basic idea is explained first in terms of a simple, made-up example. The application of the idea to a very real and complicated problem, nuclear-plant risk assessment, is then outlined.