A reappraisal of the social security-fertility hypothesis: A bidirectional approach |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Experimental Physics, Eastern European National University, Lutsk, Ukraine;2. Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Czestochowa University of Technology, Armii Krajowej 17, Czestochowa, Poland;3. V. Lashkaryov Institute of Semiconductor Physics, NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine;4. Department of Inorganic and Physical Chemistry, Eastern European National University, Lutsk, Ukraine;5. Institute of Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, al. Lotników 32/46, 02-668 Warszawa, Poland;6. Lviv Polytechnic National University, 12 Bandera, 79646 Lviv, Ukraine;7. Institute of Physics, Kazimierz Wielki University, Weyssenhoffa 11, 85-072 Bydgoszcz, Poland;8. Institute of Physics, J. Dlugosz University Częstochowa, Armii Krajowej 13/15, Częstochowa PL-42-217, Poland;1. Fukushima Remote Monitoring Group, Fukushima Environmental Safety Center, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 45-169 Sukakeba, Kaihama-aza, Haramachi-ku, Minami-soma 975-0036, Japan;2. NESI, Inc., 38 Shinko-cho, Hitachinaka, Ibaraki 312-0005, Japan;3. OYO Corporation, 1-66-22 Miyahara-cho, Kita-ku, Sitama-shi, Saitama 331-0812, Japan;4. Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science (ICAS), Ibaraki University, 2-1-1 Bunkyo, Mito, Ibaraki 310-8512, Japan;5. Atmospheric Environment Research Group, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, 16-1 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8569, Japan |
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| Abstract: | There has been considerable debate in the literature regarding the social security-fertility hypothesis. By analyzing 81 countries for which data was available, numerous econometric models were developed to test both the relative importance of social security as a causal factor affecting fertility and the subsequent effect of lower fertility levels on social security expenditures. By controlling for economic development and testing the model at different points in time, the social security variable was found to be causally linked to subsequent fertility levels as well as fertility levels being causally linked to subsequent social security expenditures. Furthermore, the appropriate response lag was identified and various nonlinear functional forms were utilized to control for economic development. Finally, a Chow test was employed to show the existence of structural change between the developed and less developed nations. |
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