Are Individuals’ Desired Family Sizes Stable? Evidence from West German Panel Data |
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| Authors: | Frank Heiland Alexia Prskawetz Warren C Sanderson |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Economics, Center for Demography and Population Health, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-2180, USA;(2) Vienna Institute of Demography, Wohllebengasse 12-14, Vienna, 1040, Austria;(3) International Institute of Applied System Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria;(4) Department of Economics, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY 11794-4384, USA;(5) Department of History, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY 11794-4384, USA |
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| Abstract: | Using West German panel data constructed from the 1988 and 1994/1995 wave of the DJI Familiensurvey, we analyze the stability
and determinants of individuals’ total desired fertility. We find considerable variation of total desired fertility across
respondents and across interviews. In particular, up to 50% of individuals report a different total desired fertility across
survey waves. Multivariate analysis confirms the importance of background factors including growing up with both parents,
having more siblings, and being Catholic for preference formation. Consistent with the idea that life course experiences provide
new information regarding the expected costs and benefits of different family sizes, the influence of background factors on
total desired fertility is strong early in life and weakens as subsequent life course experiences, including childbearing,
take effect. Accounting for unobserved individual heterogeneity, we estimate that an additional child may increase the total
desired fertility of women with children by 0.14 children, less than what conventional estimates from cross-sectional data
would have suggested. |
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