饲料粮期货套期保值与规模生猪养殖主体生产稳定

我国生猪养殖规模化趋势明显，饲料粮期货为规模生猪养殖主体管理饲料粮价格风险、稳定生猪生产提供了金融工具。基于2013-2020年生猪上市公司的经营报告数据，使用双向固定效应模型，实证研究了饲料粮期货套期保值交易对规模生猪养殖主体的隐性与显性稳产作用，并检验了期货交易促进生产稳定的作用机制。研究结果表明：饲料粮期货套期保值交易有助于规模生猪养殖主体扩大生产，且随着生猪营收占比的增加，期货交易的扩产效应有所提高；期货交易有助于规模生猪养殖主体稳定出栏。机制分析结果表明，期货交易稳产的作用机制是降低了生猪养殖主体经营现金流的波动，稳定了收益。基于上述研究结论，从通过期货市场规避风险、金融知识普及、鼓励金融工具创新等方面提出了政策建议。

Feed Grain Future Hedging and Production Stability for Large-scale Hog Farmers Entities

fThe scale-up trend of pig farming is evident in China. Feed grain futures provide a financial tool for large-scale hog farming entities to reduce feed price risks and stabilize hog production. Based on data from 2013 to 2020 from the operating reports of listed hog companies，this paper uses a two-way fixed effects model to study the implicit and explicit production stabilization effects of feed grain futures trading on large-scale hog farmers and discusses the mechanism of futures trading in promoting production stabilization. The results of the study show that feedstuffs futures hedging transactions help large-scale hog farmers expand their production，and the expansion effect increases with the increase of hog revenue shareand futures transactions contribute to stabilizing pig output for large-scale pig farming entities. The results of mechanism analysis show that the mechanism of action of futures trading to stabilize production is to reduce the fluctuation of operating cash flow and stabilize the income. Based on the above findings， policy suggestions are proposed in terms of risk mitigation through the futures market，promoting financial knowledge dissemination，and encouraging financial instrument innovation.