Modeling, Evaluation, and Methodology in the New Century |
| |
Authors: | Clive W J Granger |
| |
Institution: | Granger:;Research Professor, Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093–0508. Phone 1–858–534–3856, Fax 1–858–534–7040, E-mail |
| |
Abstract: | The modern world has influenced the approach to empirical modeling and consequently the approach to methodology in general. The question of whether to base a model on an economic theory is easier when several models can be constructed, but an empirical evaluation analysis is required. Starting with a widely specified model and using a reduction procedure is currently a popular process; it is unclear if the reduction should be to a single or to a few alternatives. New methodologies are required for conditional predictive distributions, which are the models of the future. |
| |
Keywords: | |
|
|