出口贸易隐含碳变化驱动因素分析模型及应用

出口贸易隐含碳排放是区域间气候变化谈判面临的重要问题。为了研究区域出口商品中隐含的碳排放及其增长的驱动因素,通过基于投入产出表的嵌套的结构分解分析(SDA)模型,测度能源消费结构等九个因素对出口贸易隐含碳变化的作用,并以江苏省为背景进行应用研究。结果表明:与1997—2002年相比较,江苏省在2002—2007年出口贸易隐含碳迅猛增长,出口结构变动、最终需求扩张及出口规模扩张是出口贸易隐含碳排放增长的主要因素,而能源使用效率的改善则是减少隐含碳排放的主要原因。

A Model for the Driving Factors behind the Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in Export and Its Application

In recent years, climate change problems such as the greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide emissions seem to be more and more concerned by communities. In this paper, carbon embodied in export trade of a region and the driving factors are studied. A nested structural decomposition analysis model based on input-output table was constructed to study the driving factors, including energy consumption structure, energy consumption intensity, adjusted Leontief inverse matrix, export structure, consumption expansion, investment expansion, export scale expansion, import substitution and technical factors. Also, a case study on Jiangsu province was conducted with the proposed models. The result showed that Jiangsu province's carbon emissions embodied in export trade during 2002—2007 grew rapidly compared with that of 1997—2002. The change of export structure, final demand expansion and export scale expansion are the main factors for the increase of the embodied carbon emissions. And energy efficiency improvement is the main reason for the decrease of the carbon emissions embodied in export trade.