人口始终是我国经济持续增长中的一个重大问题

本文旨在研究控制人口增长与我国当前经济持续、快速增长之间的相互关系。文章首先确定两个事实:一是用进出口贸易的资料证实中国近年来的经济不是泡沫经济,而是实际增长;二是通过中国各种人口统计指标,特别是总和生育率(TFR)论证中国近年来生育率下降和人口增长率的下降。笔者认为当前TFR值1.8是可接受的。其次,通过减少人口投资,提高人均GDP,提高人力资本和改善人民生活等方面论证生育率和人口增长率下降是促进经济发展的重要条件,并指出人口是我国构建资源节约型和人与自然友好型社会的关键性因素。

Population is An Important Issue throughout the Whole Process of Sustained and Rapid Economic Growth is China

This article aims at discussing the interrelationships between the control of population growth and economic growth in the context of sustained and rapid economic growth in China today,in response to those arguments that population is not likely to have much impact on economic growth.The first part of this article establishes two facts in China.One is that the economic growth of China is not a bubble economy which could be illustrated by rapid increase of import and export trade of China recently.The other is rapid decline of fertility and growth rate of population through demographic statistical indictors,especially by decline of TFR which,the author is of the opinion,stays at 1.8 at present.The second part of this article justifies that the decline of fertility and population growth is conducive too economic growth through reduction of population investment accelerating per capita GDP,enhancing human capital and improving livelihood of people etc.The third part of the article justifies that population is a crucial factor to restructuring a resource-saving society as well as human-nature friendship type society.