New Estimates of Undocumented Mexican Migration and the Probability of Apprehension* |
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| Authors: | Douglas S Massey Audrey Singer |
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| Institution: | 1. Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, 19104-6298, Philadelphia, PA
2. Population Research Center, University of Chicago, 1155 E. 60th Street, 60637, Chicago, IL
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| Abstract: | Using a new source of data, we estimate the probability of apprehension among Mexican migrants attempting to cross into the United States without documents. Over the period 1965-1989 we found an average apprehension probability of .35, confirming earlier estimates. We then applied annual probabilities to estimate the gross volume of undocumented Mexican migration and adjusted these figures to derive estimates of the net undocumented inflow. |
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