On the adequacy of variational lower bound functions for likelihood-based inference in Markovian models with missing values

Summary. Variational methods have been proposed for obtaining deterministic lower bounds for log-likelihoods within missing data problems, but with little formal justification or investigation of the worth of the lower bound surfaces as tools for inference. We provide, within a general Markovian context, sufficient conditions under which estimators from the variational approximations are asymptotically equivalent to maximum likelihood estimators, and we show empirically, for the simple example of a first-order autoregressive model with missing values, that the lower bound surface can be very similar in shape to the true log-likelihood in non-asymptotic situations.