基于经济视角的上海市人口容量发展趋势分析

通过梳理上海市历年经济发展和就业数据,利用经济增长和就业弹性之间的关系,预测未来不同时期上海市对劳动力人口的需求及经济人口容量。结果显示:未来几年上海市劳动力需求量及经济发展所能承载的人口容量均呈上升趋势,其中劳动力人口将是未来几年上海市人口的重要组成部分。据此认为,在增强经济发展对上海市人口容量承载力的同时,应以产业结构调整为突破口,完善户籍制度,引导人口有序流动,将人口管理与公共资源配置有效结合,实现人口规模与结构的有效调控。

Trend Analysis of Shanghai's Population Capacity through Economic Perspective

By examining Shanghai＇s economic development and its employment data in the past years and using the relation between economic growth and employment elasticity, the paper predicts in different future periods the city＇s demand for the labor force and its economic population capacity. The results show that： in the next few years its labor and the population capacity the economic development can bear will take an upward trend, in which the workforce will be a major part of the city＇s population. Accordingly it is believed that while enhancing the economic development to bear the city＇s population, the an effective control of population scale and structure： taking following measures should be carried out to achieve industrial restructuring as a breakthrough, improving the household registration system, guiding an orderly flow of population, and combining population management with allocation of public resources effectively.