浙江省城镇住房消费总量预测——基于人口因素的研究

以家庭为研究单位,综合考虑年龄结构、家庭规模和城市化进程3方面因素构建住房消费总量预测模型,对浙江省2010—2050年城镇住房消费总量变化趋势进行预测。研究发现:(1)高、中、低三种方案下,浙江省人口总量会在未来10年左右达到顶点,峰值稍高于5 500万。峰值期之后,人口总量开始迅速逐年递减。(2)未来40年,低、中年龄家庭将大量减少,高年龄家庭将大量增多。(3)浙江省住房消费总量在2010—2030年间仍存在一定的上升空间,但2030年是个转折点,2030—2050年住房消费总量将持续下降。

On Forecasting the Total Urban Housing Consumption of Zhejing Province: A Study Based On Demographic Factors

By using family as the research unit, and taking such three factors as age structure, family size and ur- banization into overall consideration, the study made a forecast model to predict Zhejiang＇s trend of total urban housing consumption in years 2010 -2050. The study found： （1） taking all the ages- -high, middle and low -into account, the province will see its total population peak in about 10 years, a bit more than 55 million. Then after the peak period, the total population will decrease rapidly year by year. （2） in the next 40 years, the families of low and middle ages will reduce significantly, while the ones of high will increase in large number. （3） there is still room for the growth of the provincial total housing consumption between 2010 and 2030, but 2030 was a turning point, as the consumption will continue to decline from 2030 to 2050.