经济集聚与农村居民收入增长——基于川渝地区贫困县与非贫困县的对比分析

经济集聚和乡村振兴作为区域经济学和发展经济学的重点问题和现实诉求,二者能否"相得益彰"备受关注。虽然现在脱贫攻坚任务业已完成,考虑到"贫困陷阱"顽固贫困"以及"贫困代际传递"等关键问题仍然存在的客观事实,实现传统贫困地区农村居民收入的持续增长是破除连片特困地区的相对贫困桎梏和防止返贫的关键突破口,具有重要的学术价值与现实意义。文章在空间经济学理论框架下探讨了经济集聚对农村居民收入增长的影响机制,认为经济集聚可以通过空间溢出效应影响农村居民收入增长,但对邻近贫困县与非贫困县具有显著的空间非对称特征,"经济集聚中心"对地区农村居民收入增长影响同时具有规模效应和随距离衰减特征。作者以西部经济最活跃、贫困问题相对突出的川渝地区218个区县为样本,将反映地理和经济特征的空间权重矩阵引入动态空间杜宾模型,对上述理论假说进行了实证检验。研究发现：对全部样本的动态空间杜宾模型回归结果表明,经济集聚对农民的增收减贫效应在时间维度上存在路径依赖和"滚雪球"特征,具有长期的正向直接效应和溢出效应,可以显著促进农民增收,但其短期效应并不显著,农村居民收入增长仍然是较长时期内地方政府必须加以重视的工作重点。对传统贫困县和非贫困县两类地区分样本回归分析的结果表明,经济集聚对农村居民收入增长的影响具有典型的空间非对称性特征,"经济集聚中心"对农村居民收入增长的影响具有明显的规模效应和随距离衰减的特征,经济集聚不仅不能有效促进边远深度贫困地区农村居民收入增长,反而进一步加剧了当地农村居民收入状况的恶化。基于上述研究结果,文章认为在肯定经济集聚对农村居民收入积极作用的同时,特别是在脱贫攻坚和乡村振兴有效衔接的后脱贫攻坚时期,既要不断增强经济集聚的广度和深度,促进区域经济发展,又要重视经济集聚对贫困县与非贫困县在减贫效果上的差异,合理调整政策,有意识地将乡村振兴战略与精准扶贫和深度扶贫政策相结合,切实做到持续改善贫困县地区农村居民的收入状况。

Economic agglomeration and income growth of rural residents: Comparative analysis of Poor and non-poor counties in Sichuan and Chongqing

Economic agglomeration and Rural Revitalization are the key issues and practical demands of regional economics and development economics. Whether they can "complement each other" has attracted much attention. Although the task of poverty alleviation has now been completed, taking into account the objective fact that some key issues such as "poverty trap", "stubborn poverty" and "intergenerational transmission of poverty" still exist, the realization of sustained income growth of rural residents in traditional poverty-stricken areas is crucial to break the shackles of poverty and prevent poverty-returning in contiguous areas, and it has important academic value and practical significance. Under the theoretical framework of spatial economics, this paper discusses the impact mechanism of economic agglomeration on rural residents'' income growth. We believe that economic agglomeration can affect the income growth of rural residents through spatial spillover effect, but it has significant spatial asymmetry characteristics for neighboring poor and non-poor counties. The impact of "economic agglomeration center" on the income growth of rural residents in the region has both scale effect and attenuation characteristics with distance. Taking 218 districts and counties in Sichuan and Chongqing, which have the most dynamic economy and relatively prominent poverty problems in the west, as a sample, this paper introduces the spatial weight matrix reflecting geographical and economic characteristics into the dynamic spatial Dobbin model for empirical test. It is found that the effect of economic agglomeration on increasing farmers'' income and reducing poverty has the characteristics of path dependence and "snowball" in the time dimension, and has long-term positive direct effect and spillover effect, which can significantly promote the income growth of rural residents, but its short-term effect is not significant. The income growth of rural residents should still be the focus of local governments work and must be paid attention to in a long time. The results of the regression analysis of the traditional poverty-stricken counties and non-poor counties show that, the impact of economic agglomeration on the income growth of rural residents has typical spatial asymmetry. The impact of "economic agglomeration center" on the income growth of rural residents has obvious scale effect and attenuation characteristics with distance. Economic agglomeration not only fails to effectively enhance the income growth of rural residents in remote and deep poverty-stricken areas, but also further aggravates the deterioration of the income situation of local rural residents. It suggests that in the "post poverty alleviation period" when poverty eradication and Rural Revitalization are effectively connected, we should not only continue to strengthen the scope and depth of economic agglomeration and promote regional economic development, but also pay attention to the difference in poverty reduction effect of economic agglomeration between poor and non-poor counties, adjust policies reasonably, combine rural revitalization strategy with targeted poverty alleviation and deep poverty alleviation policies, in order to improve the income situation of rural residents in poor counties effectively.