中国城镇化进程与服务经济发展动态关系的实证研究

文章实证分析了1978年至2011年期间,中国城镇化进程与服务经济发展的动态关系及其影响因素。研究结果表明:城镇化进程与服务经济发展在长期和短期均高度正相关;城镇化进程单向地促进服务经济发展;人均收入、就业结构、工业化程度和市镇化程度影响了城镇化进程对服务经济发展的短期促进作用。政策建议是:城镇化进程与服务经济协调发展;新型工业化与服务经济共同发展;解决服务消费的城市偏向和服务的供需失衡问题;放松服务业管制和引入市场竞争机制。 

Empirical Research on the Dynamic Relationship between Urbanization and Services in China

The paper empirically analyzes the dynamic relationship between urbanization and services and also its influential factors in China during 1978-2011. The results show： the level of urbanization is in highly positive correlation with service economy in short run and long run; the urbanization process promotes service economy and vice versa; the per capital income, employment structure, degree of industrialization and marketization degree affect the promotional function of urbanization on service economy in short-term. The policy suggestions are as follows： the coordinated development of the urbanization process and service development; the common development of new-style industrialization and service economy; the solving of the problems of urban-oriented services and the imbalance of service supply and demand; and the relaxing service industries＇ control and introducing the market competition mechanism.