解析人民币钉住美元制

１９９４年中国实行了具有里程碑意义的外汇管理体制改革 ,建立了有管理的浮动汇率制度 ,确立了最终实现人民币资本项目下可兑换的目标。直到亚洲金融危机前 ,中国的汇率政策是以实际目标为导向的 (ｒｅａｌｔａｒｇｅｔｓａｐｐｒｏａｃｈ) ,汇率政策目标是促进出口和获得外汇 ,这种汇率制度在汇率安排上是浮动汇率制度。学术界认为 ,在亚洲金融危机期间和金融危机之后 ,人民币汇率制度从实际目标法转向名义锚钉住 (ｎｏｍｉｎａｌａｎｃｈｏｒａｐｐｒｏａｃｈ) ,即 ,事实上的单一钉住美元制 ,这是人民币汇率制度的巨大转变。那么 ,在亚洲…

A Dissection of the System of the Pegging of RMB to US Dollars

In 1994 China effected the reform of foreign exchange system as meaningful as a milestone, instituting a controlled floating system, and setting the target for the realization of convertibility of RMB in capital account. Before the Asia Financial Crisis happened, China's foreign exchange policy had been real-targets-approach-oriented, with promotion of export and earning foreign exchange as its objective, and under a system of floating foreign exchange rate. But during and after the Asia Financial Crisis, in the opinion of academic circles, the system of foreign exchange rate of RMB was one with a nominal anchor approach (instead of real targets approach)-a de facto single US dollar peg, which is substantial transformation in our foreign exchange rate system. But should China, after the recovery of Asia economy,continue to keep the dollar peg,or return to the controlled floating system? The Japanese yen was greatly depreciated against the US dollar at the end of 2001, when many economists suggested an increase in the flexibility of exchange rate of RMB. The orientation of exchange rate of RMB is determined by the comparative cost/ return analysis of the two exchange systems. In recent years, the exchange rate of RMB has been unusually stable. In this article I attempt to analyze the cost and benefit resulted from the present selection of the exchange rate system of RMB.