当前美国经济中的贸易逆差透视

美国巨额贸易逆差与持续稳定的经济增长相伴出现 ,皆因美国高增长与高消费需要贸易逆差 ,贸易逆差对美国低通胀、低失业率做出了贡献 ,亦有利于其开拓全球市场。换个角度看 ,美贸易逆差实际上并没有官方公布的那么巨大 ,外贸影响经济增长的是实际顺 (逆 )差和经济福利 ,而不是名义上的顺 (逆 )差。但是 ,美贸易逆差的负面影响却不可低估 ,它使美国乃至世界经济的风险加大。透视美国逆差 ,我们应重新审视外贸乘数理论的有效性 ,应重视贸易对本国福利的影响 ,减轻对美出口的依赖 ,而不应过分追求名义上的顺差

A Probe into the Trade Deficit in Current U.S. Economy

In 1990s the amount of trade deficit has gone up rapidly accompanied by the steady economic growth in U.S. The reason is that the high growth and high consumption of American economy need the high trade deficit,with the low inflation and low unemployment rate benefited from the trade deficit.In addition,the deficit is the tool with which America has expanded its global market.In fact it is possible that the government has overestimated the deficit.What really influences the growth of economy is the real surplus or deficit and economic welfare,not the nominal figure.Nevertheless,the negative effects of the deficit in America can never be underestimated as the deficit causes increasing economic risks in America and even the whole world.Considering the American deficit we should retrospect the validity of the trade multiplies theory with more attention to the influence of trade on our national welfare while tetting rid of our dependence on import from America and the pursuit of nominal surplus.