中国经济增长中长期预测的比较分析

文章对近年来国内一些知名学者和机构用不同方法和模型对中国未来中长期经济增长作出的预测结果进行了比较分析,并对部分预测结果进行了验证,发现专家们对未来中国经济增长的预测差别很大,不过他们的预测也有相似之处,就是中国未来的经济增长率将呈递减的态势,比如绝大多数的预测是中国在2010年之后的经济增长速度将放缓至6%左右,这似乎说明中国高速经济增长的阶段将要结束,但是对于导致中国未来经济增长放缓的原因却是见仁见智。文章对这些研究成果进行比较分析的政策意义在于提醒政府应该为未来可能出现的经济中低速增长做好准备。

Comparative Analysis of Medium/long -term Forecasts of China's Economic Growth

In recent years, many famous Chinese scholars and organizations have forecasted medium/long-term economic growth of China with different methods and models. This paper collects some of these forecasting results and makes a comparative analysis. The analysis shows that their forecasts vary significantly, but there indeed exists common sense among them, that is the economic growth trend of China will tend to decrease in the future. Most of these forecasting results show that the growth rate will decease to 6% after year 2010. But the factors that lead to this decreasing trend are different.