Individual and institutional push and pull factors as predictors of retirement timing in Europe: A multilevel analysis

The number of retired people in Europe has increased significantly in recent decades. It remains unclear, however, whether individuals are more likely to be pulled toward retirement by their expectations about life after retirement than they are to be pushed out of the labour market due to poor health or dislike of one's job. The fact that retirement timing differs rather considerably between European countries suggests that not only micro, but also macro push (i.e. labour market constraints) and pull (i.e. economic incentives) factors influence retirement decisions. This duality heightens the need to determine the influence of micro-level and macro-level push and pull indicators on the retirement timing of older workers (50 +) in Europe. Results are obtained performing multilevel event history analysis using longitudinal micro data from the first (2004/05) and second (2006/07) waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and macro data derived from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Eurostat. The results indicate that at the individual level, older workers are pushed out due to health problems as well as being attracted towards retirement to spend time with their grandchildren. At the institutional level, financial incentives such as a high implicit tax on continued work and high expenditures on early exit schemes make retirement attractive, whereas the institutional push context is of lesser importance.