沿边开放与区域经济增长——基于制度变迁的研究

主要关注沿边开放地区的制度变迁对经济增长的影响效应,基于2003—2018年我国8个沿边省份的73个地级城市面板数据,运用双向固定模型、分位数回归、门槛效应模型和中介效应模型进行科学严谨的研究,主要结论有:(1)沿边开放的制度变迁有利于促进区域经济增长,并且在一系列稳健性检验后,该结论仍然成立;(2)分位数回归发现,随着经济增长率分位数点的增加,沿边开放地区的制度变迁对经济增长的促进作用呈现出先变小、再变大的U型特征;(3)门槛效应发现,随着制度质量水平提升,沿边开放地区制度变迁对区域经济增长的作用效果呈现出边际递减的特征;(4)异质性发现,城镇化方面,高城镇化的沿边地区制度变迁促进经济增长的作用大于低城镇化地区。创新水平方面,在高创新水平地区,沿边开放的制度变迁显著促进区域经济增长,而低创新水平地区不显著;(5)中介效应发现,沿边开放地区的制度变迁主要通过外商直接投资和固定资产投资增加,进而促进区域经济增长,其中固定资产投资起到完全中介作用。结论为进一步深化改革开放、加快沿边开放地区发展和构建开放型经济新体制提供一定经验依据和政策支持。

Border Opening and Regional Economic Growth: A Study Based on Institutional Changes

This paper focuses on the effect of institutional changes in the open areas along border on economic growth. Based on the panel data of 73 prefecture-level cities in 8 border provinces in China from 2003 to 2018, it uses a two-way fixed model, quantile regression, threshold effect model, and the intermediary effect model to conduct a scientific and rigorous research.The main conclusions are:(1) The institutional changes of the border opening are beneficial to promote regional economic growth, and after a series of robustness tests, the conclusion is still valid;(2) Quantile regression indicates that as the quantile points of economic growth increase, the promotion of economic growth by the institutional changes in the open areas along the border shows a U-shaped characteristic of first becoming smaller and then larger;(3) The threshold effect indicates that with the improvement of the quality of the system, the effect of the institutional changes in the open areas along the border on regional economic growth has shown a characteristic of diminishing margins;(4) Heterogeneity indicates that in terms of urbanization, the role of institutional changes in the border areas with high urbanization in promoting economic growth is greater than that in areas with low urbanization, and in terms of innovation levels, in the areas with high levels of innovation, institutional changes of border opening have significantly promoted regional economic growth, while in the areas with low levels of innovation, the effect of changes is not significant;(5) The intermediary effect indicates that the institutional changes in the open areas along the border increase mainly through foreign direct investment and fixed asset investment, which in turn promotes regional economic growth, in which fixed asset investment plays a complete intermediary role.The conclusions of this paper provide a certain empirical basis and policy support for further deepening reform and opening up, accelerating the development of open areas along the border, and building a new open economic system.