论帝国的兴衰

随着民族国家的兴起,帝国的时代已经一去不复返。然而,人类进入文明社会后的绝大部分时间,却是在帝国政治中度过的。第二次世界大战后,随着帝国体系在全球范围内的彻底崩溃,帝国研究也被严重忽视。21世纪帝国研究再度受到关注,这既有弥补帝国研究不足的学术动因,但更有人类在全球化时代探索新的国际秩序的现实动因。历史上曾经出现过许多对人类文明产生深远影响的强大帝国,例如亚述帝国、波斯帝国、亚历山大帝国、罗马帝国、蒙古帝国、奥斯曼帝国、西班牙帝国和大英帝国等等。这些帝国持续的时间,长久者多达千年之上,短命者则只有区区十几年。帝国的产生和兴亡既要遵循一般的普遍规律,也有其各自具体的特殊原因。从普遍规律看,国家的军事力量、科技水平、综合国力、政治制度、战略决策、领袖品性、国民素质和地缘政治等,都是影响帝国命运的重要因素。

On the Rise and Fall of Empires

The empire era has gone forever with the rise of nation state. Nevertheless, human being has lived mostly in the imperial time since it came into the age of civilization. The research on empires has been neglected to the large extent after the World War II which leads to the total collapse of imperial system in the world. However, there have been more and more research on empires since the 21 st century because of both the academic motivation to make up for the lack of studies of empires and the practical motivation for mankind to explore a new international order in the era of globalization.In history, there have been a number of powerful empires that have had a far-reaching impact on human civilization, such as the Assyrian Empire, the Persian Empire, the Alexander Empire, the Roman Empire, the Mongolian Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the Spanish Empire and the British Empire. Some empires lasted as long as more than a thousand years while others lasted only a dozen years. The rise and fall of empires has either its universal laws or its special conditions. From the perspective of universal law, among the decisive factors related to the fate of empires are the military force, scientific and technological progress, comprehensive national strength, political system, strategic decision-making, leadership, national qualities and geopolitics.